Bettors looking to make a profit over the course of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival should consider these key betting trends for an insight into the numbers over the previous festivals, and as an aide to your main betting strategy.
Champion Day (Tuesday)
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Only three of the last 13 horses to start the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle with odds of 3.00 or shorter have gone on to win the race.
It’s also worth noting that 19 of the last 23 win and place positions in the market have been covered by ex-bumper (a Flat race ran under Jump racing rules, designed for horses who have not previously run on the Flat to get experience of racing) horses.
Recent form counts in the Arkle Trophy with 28 of the last 30 winners having previously won or placed in their last race. Altior is the market-leader, however just two of the last 35 winners made all or most of the running - Nicky Henderson’s charge is renowned for racing up with the pace.
Just two of the last 25 Christmas Hurdle winners who have run in the Champion Hurdle have gone on to win. Yanworth won the former this season and is the slight favourite over Buveur D’Air - trained by Henderson, the joint-leading trainer in the Champion Hurdle, but last won in 2010.
Ladies’ Day (Wednesday)
Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle
All 15 reigning Challow Hurdle winners to run in this race have been beaten. This year’s winner Messire Des Obeaux is in the mix according to the odds, while Finian’s Oscar heads the betting.
The last 14 winners had previously placed at worst in a Grade 1 or 2 chase. Current favourite Might Bite will buck the trend this year if he wins. However, he should have won the Kauto Star Novices' Chase, before falling at the last with a big lead.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Fourteen of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 previously, and undefeated Douvan is a huge favourite having claimed numerous Grade 1 races. Looking for a horse to challenge, then 11 of the last 16 winners contested the Tingle Creek Chase, with Un De Sceaux currently fourth favourite.
St Patrick’s (Thursday)
JLT Novices’ Chase
Twelve of the past 16 win or placed horses in the Novices’ Chase had won on their previous start. Favourite Yorkhill won last time out in January, while further a field Disko was also first past the post in February.
Eighteen of the previous 22 winners and runners-up had won at Cheltenham before. The current top three in the betting – Un De Sceaux (2015), Empire of Dirt (2016) and Uxizandre (2015) have all won at the Festival before.
Fourteen of the last 15 winners had finished first or second in all hurdling starts that season. Favourite Unowhatimeanharry hasn’t been beaten over hurdles since November 2015 - a run of eight races.
Gold Cup Day (Friday)
The last nine winners were officially rated above 138, while the last 25 winners ran in the last 55 days. Defi Du Seuil (155) ran within this time frame, and won - 18 of the last 23 winners won their most recent race.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
The last 55 winners were all aged 10 or younger, which means current favourite Cue Card at 11 will buck the trend if he wins. Just two of the last 18 winners failed to win earlier in the season, which means Native River and Djakadam would follow both the age and good form trends.
Apply this to betting
These Cheltenham Festival betting trends should be used as an aide to your own betting strategy to help find value on horses whether you back or lay.
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