What is Draw No Bet betting?
Draw No Bet is a betting market which removes the outcome of a draw on three-way markets, allowing bettors to bet on either a home or away win. This article explains what Draw No Bet betting is, gives example bets and explains how to calculate your own Draw No Bet odds from 1X2 markets.
Draw No Bet is becoming increasingly popular amongst savvy bettors and risk-averse traders as a low margin two-way market. Many bettors undervalue the likelihood of a draw, however looking back at five Premier League seasons (2012/13-2016/17) on average 25% of all games ended in a draw.
The Draw No Bet is a way for traders to reduce the probability of a losing bet and can be used to:
- Back an outsider, with the security of the draw
- Protect your stake if you believe there is a reasonable chance of a draw
- Trade a big favourite in-play when they are losing
Draw No Bet meaning
Draw No Bet removes the option of a draw from a bet and allows bettors to bet on either a home or away win.
If your selection is successful your bet will win, If the contest ends in a draw, your stake will be returned meaning you neither win or lose. Your bet will lose if the team you backed are defeated.
In comparison If you bet on the three-way market rather than the Draw No Bet and the match ends in a draw, your bet would lose.
As a consequence of removing the option of a draw, odds on Draw No Bet markets will be lower than that on the three-way market.
Draw No Bet explained
Draw No Bet markets are offered by bookmakers and betting exchanges. However, if there are no markets available you can also create your own Draw No Bet odds using the 1X2 odds.
How to bet on a Draw No Bet market
Betting on a Draw No Bet market is very simple. Let’s say you want to bet on Liverpool against Hoffenheim in their Champions League qualifier. Liverpool have a 2-1 aggregate lead, and the first game was a tight affair.
The odds on the 1X2 have Liverpool to win the game at 1.68, however, the odds on the Draw No Bet are displayed below:
- Liverpool win: 1.28
- Hoffenheim win: 4.3
If you placed a £200 bet on Liverpool on the Draw No Bet market at odds of 1.28 your profit would be:
£0 (£200 stake returned)
How to create your own Draw No Bet odds on the 1X2 market
You can calculate the true odds for the Draw No Bet by combining the odds posted on the 1X2 market. This works by spreading your stake over either a home win and draw or away win and draw so that if the game ends in a draw, your stake will be returned.
You can calculate your own Draw No Bet odds from the 1X2 market by following two simple stages:
- Converting 1X2 odds into Draw No Bet odds
- Calculating your own Draw No Bet stakes
Let’s use the game as before between Liverpool and Hoffenheim as an example and you want to stake £200 on Liverpool. The 1X2 odds are displayed below:
- Liverpool win: 1.68
- Draw: 4.4
- Hoffenheim win: 5.6
Converting 1X2 odds into Draw No Bet odds
Firstly you need to convert the 1X2 odds to Draw No Bet odds. The formula below shows you how for both home and away teams:
Home Draw No Bet odds = (1- (1/1X2 draw odds)) * 1X2 home odds
Away Draw No Bet odds = (1- (1/1X2 draw odds)) * 1X2 away odds
For our example we need to calculate the home team Liverpool’s Draw No Bet odds:
This shows your combined Draw No Bet odds from a 1X2 market would be 1.30 compared to 1.28 on the actual Draw No Bet market.
Calculating Draw No Bet stakes
The formulas below explain how to calculate how much of your £200 you should stake on each outcome so it is the equivalent of a Draw No Bet market.
Stake on the draw = (total stake/draw odds)
The calculation for either a home or away win is as follows:
Home win = (total stake - draw stake) = Home stake
You should now place a £154.55 bet on Liverpool and a £45.45 on the draw.
Note: If you are calculating your own Draw No Bet odds on a betting exchange you need to factor in the commission to the odds at the staking stage by converting the odds on offer. This article explains how to calculate betting exchange commission into odds.
The formulas below show you how to calculate your payout for your own Draw No Bet market.
Home win = (home stake * (home odds - 1) - draw stake)
Draw win = (draw stake * (draw odds -1) - home stake)
-£0.02 (£154.53 returned)
Betting on Draw No Bet market vs. Calculating your own odds
After calculating your own Draw No Bet odds, you will know whether or not it’s more favourable to calculate your own or bet directly on the Draw No Bet market.
This example shows a 6.5% increase in profit by calculating your own odds from 1X2 markets compared to the Draw No Bet on offer. As betting is all about taking value, for our example you would definitely create your own Draw No Bet odds from the 1X2 market as you would make more money.
Asian handicap as an alternative to Draw No Bet betting
Additionally, you can use the level Asian handicap betting market which displays the handicap as 0. If the game ended in a draw, your stake would be returned - effectively achieving the same outcome as Draw No Bet.
However, Draw No Bet offers bettors the ability to calculate their own Draw No Bet odds by using two different bookmakers or betting exchanges. This can add more value to the bet, and something the level Asian handicap doesn’t offer.
Apply this to betting
Now you know what Draw No Bet means and how to calculate your own Draw No Bet odds from 1X2 markets, you can identify better value odds. Draw No Bet also gives you the option of a more risk-averse betting strategy on games where you believe there is a high probability of a draw.